分析师预测信息来源的新发现：会计师事务所
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财经研究 2017 年 第 43 卷第 05 期, 页码：76 - 88
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章通过检验券商与公司聘任同一家会计师事务所对券商旗下分析师预测行为的影响，研究了证券分析师的预测信息是否可能来源于会计师事务所。研究发现：（1）分析师更愿意跟踪与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的上市公司，对其发布的盈余预测更准确，也更倾向于额外发布现金流预测。（2）券商与公司从非同聘会计师事务所变更为同聘会计师事务所，其分析师预测的准确性提高，反之则降低。分析师对与所属券商聘任同一家会计师事务所的公司在年报披露前最后一次盈余预测的准确性有更大幅度的提高。（3）同聘会计师事务所对预测准确性的促进作用集中在分析师跟踪少和收入变化大的公司以及非明星分析师发布的预测。文章的研究有助于理解同聘会计师事务所对分析师预测行为的影响，也有助于资本市场上的投资者更好地利用同聘会计师事务所的券商旗下分析师发布的预测报告，拓展了分析师预测信息来源的研究。
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[29] Lehavy R, Li F, Merkley K. The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earnings forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2011, 86(3): 1087-1115.
[30] Lin H, McNichols M F. Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1998, 25(1): 101-127.
[31] Malloy C J. The geography of equity analysis[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2005, 60(2): 719-755.
[32] Merkley K J, Bamber L S, Christensen T E. Detailed management earnings forecasts: Do analysts listen?[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2013, 18(2): 479-521.
[33] Mikhail M B, Walther B R, Willis R H. Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 1997, 35(4): 131-157.
[34] O'Brien P C, Tan H. Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions: Evidence from IPOs[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2015, 59(1): 41-59.
[35] Payne J L. The influence of audit firm specialization on analysts' forecast errors[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 2008, 27(2): 109-136.
[36] Wu Y, Wilson M. Audit quality and analyst forecast accuracy: The impact of forecast horizon and other modeling choices[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 2016, 35(2): 167-185.
[2] 储一昀,仓勇涛,王琳.财务分析师能认知审计任期的信息内涵吗?[J].会计研究,2011,(1):90－94.
[3] 胡奕明,林文雄,王玮璐.证券分析师的信息来源、关注域与分析工具[J].金融研究,2003,(12):52－63.
[4] 全怡,陈冬华,李真.独立董事身份提高了分析师的预测质量吗?[J].财经研究,2014,(11):97－107.
[5] 孙亮,刘春,柳建华.御用会计师:合作抑或合谋[J].管理科学学报,2016,(2):109－126.
[6] 原红旗,黄倩茹.承销商分析师与非承销商分析师预测评级比较研究[J].中国会计评论,2007,(3):285－304.
[7] 张然,王会娟,张路.本地优势、信息披露质量和分析师预测准确性[J].中国会计评论,2012,(2):127－138.
[8] Agarwal S, Hauswald R. Distance and private information in lending[J]. Review of Financial studies, 2010, 23(7): 2757-2788.
[9] Aobdia D. Proprietary information spillovers and supplier choice: Evidence from auditors[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2015, 20(4): 1504-1539.
[10] Bae K H, Stulz R M, Tan H. Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2008, 88(3): 581-606.
[11] Behn B K, Choi J H, Kang T. Audit quality and properties of analyst earnings forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2008, 83(2): 327-349.
[12] Bilinski P. Do analysts disclose cash flow forecasts with earnings estimates when earnings quality is low?[J]. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 2014, 41(3-4): 401-434.
[13] Bowen R M, Davis A K, Matsumoto D A. Do conference calls affect analysts' forecasts?[J]. The Accounting Review, 2002, 77(2): 285-316.
[14] Cai Y, Kim Y, Park J C, et al. Common auditors in M&A transactions[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2016, 66(1): 77-99.
[15] Choi J H, Kim J B, Qiu A A, et al. Geographic proximity between auditor and client: How does it impact audit quality?[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 2012, 31(2): 43-72.
[16] Cheng Q, Du F, Wang X, et al. Seeing is believing: Analysts' corporate site visits[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2016, 21(4): 1245-1286.
[17] Clement M B. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1999, 27(3): 285-303.
[18] Cohen L, Frazzini A, Malloy C. The small world of investing: Board connections and mutual fund returns[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2008, 116(5): 951-979.
[19] Cohen L, Frazzini A, Malloy C. Sell-side school ties[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010, 65(4):1409-1437.
[20] DeFond M L, Hung M. An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2003, 35(1): 73-100.
[21] Dhaliwal D S, Lamoreaux P T, Litov L P, et al. Shared auditors in mergers and acquisitions[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2016, 61(1): 49-76.
[22] Givoly D, Hayn C, Lehavy R. The quality of analysts' cash flow forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2009, 84(6): 1877-1911.
[23] Guan Y, Su L N, Wu D, et al. Do school ties between auditors and client executives influence audit outcomes?[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2016, 61(2-3): 506-525.
[24] He W, Sidhu B, Taylor S L. Audit quality and properties of analysts' information environment[R]. Working Paper, 2014.
[25] Hochberg Y V, Ljungqvist A, Lu Y. Whom you know matters: Venture capital networks and investment performance[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2007, 62(1): 251-301.
[26] Jacob J, Lys T Z, Neale M A. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1999, 28(1): 51-82.
[27] Kwon S Y. The impact of competition within the client's industry on the auditor selection decision[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 1996, 15(1): 53-70.
[28] Lang M H, Lundholm R J. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior[J]. The Accounting Review, 1996, 71(4): 467-492.
[29] Lehavy R, Li F, Merkley K. The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earnings forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review, 2011, 86(3): 1087-1115.
[30] Lin H, McNichols M F. Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1998, 25(1): 101-127.
[31] Malloy C J. The geography of equity analysis[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2005, 60(2): 719-755.
[32] Merkley K J, Bamber L S, Christensen T E. Detailed management earnings forecasts: Do analysts listen?[J]. Review of Accounting Studies, 2013, 18(2): 479-521.
[33] Mikhail M B, Walther B R, Willis R H. Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 1997, 35(4): 131-157.
[34] O'Brien P C, Tan H. Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions: Evidence from IPOs[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2015, 59(1): 41-59.
[35] Payne J L. The influence of audit firm specialization on analysts' forecast errors[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 2008, 27(2): 109-136.
[36] Wu Y, Wilson M. Audit quality and analyst forecast accuracy: The impact of forecast horizon and other modeling choices[J]. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 2016, 35(2): 167-185.
引用本文
刘文军, 谢帮生. 分析师预测信息来源的新发现：会计师事务所[J]. 财经研究, 2017, (5): 76–88.
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