商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策
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财经研究 2007 年 第 33 卷第 07 期, 页码：71 - 82
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章着重从商业周期角度来对我国区际一体化状况进行实证研究,即主要从“市场自然分割”与“政策与经济结构”两方面因素来探索商业周期的区域差异。总体来看,我国所有地区在两个时间样本期间(1992~1997年与1998~2004年)的就业和产出周期同步性均有所增加,说明商业周期的演进与我国经济体制改革基本同步;文章还分析了影响商业周期的不同解释变量,结果显示:控制变量的距离、规模与周期存在显著的相关性,而体现“东西边界”的外生变量则在绝大部分回归中则显著为负,说明在我国东西部之间可能存在一道明显的“区域分界线”,阻碍了大区域间的经济联系;此外,樊刚指数对区域周期的解释具有两面性,经济结构差异越合理,商业周期越走向同步性,而财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是我国商业周期的波动因素。
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[3]M Ayhan Kose,Eswar S Prasad,Marco E.Howdoes globalization affect the synchroni-zation of business cycles?[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(2):57~62.
[4]Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney,Ping HUA.The Balassa-Samuelson effect and infla-tionin the Chinese provinces[J].China Economic Review2002,13:134~160.
[5]Balassa B.The purchasing power parity doctrine:Areappraisal[J].Journal of Politi-cal Economy,1964,72:584~596.
[6]Sandra Poncet.Are Chinese provinces forming an Opti mal Currency Area?Magnitudeand determinants of business cycles within China[R].Working Paper,2005.
[7]Todd E Clark,Eric van Wincoop.Borders and business cycles[R].Working Paper,Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,1999,199~207.
[8]Krugman P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of Political Econo-my,University of Chicago Press,1991,99(3):483~499.
[9]Elhanan Helpman.The Structure of foreigntrade[J].The Journal of Economic Perspec-tives,1999,13(2):121~144.
[10]JA Frankel,AK Rose.The endogenity of the opti mumcurrency area criteria[J].TheEconomic Journal,1998,108(449):1009~1025.
[11]Tami m Bayoumi,Barry Eichengreen.Shocking aspects of European monetary Unifica-tion[R].Working Paper,1992,No.3949.
引用本文
徐勇, 赵永亮. 商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(7): 71–82.
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