Gibrat法则是否适用于中国寿险公司——兼论寿险公司规模与成长的影响因素
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 10 期, 页码：16 - 26
摘要
参考文献
摘要
近年来中国寿险市场发展呈现出"寡头主导、大中小共生"的局面。究竟应重点发展"巨无霸"式的金融保险集团,还是应优先发展"船小好掉头"的中小保险公司,这是中国寿险市场面临的一个重要选择。Gibrat法则认为同一行业中的企业,其成长率是独立于其规模的变量,文章对Gibrat法则在寿险业的适用性进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:(1)Gibrat法则对中国的寿险公司不成立,规模越小的公司其成长率越高;(2)寿险公司资产增长率和保费增长率均存在条件收敛效应;(3)寿险公司的产业特点、业务结构和经营产生的外部性会较显著地影响其规模与成长。文章认为中国寿险市场发展的选择如果与本文所揭示的规律相匹配,则寿险业发展会进入良性循环。
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[2]邵全权,周召辉.寿险公司业务结构调整对产业组织的影响研究[J].保险研究,2010,(12):24-34.
[3]邵全权.小议保险竞争的网络外部性[N].中国保险报,2011-01-04.
[4]林毅夫,姜烨.经济结构、银行业结构与经济发展———基于分省面板数据的实证分析[J].金融研究,2006,(1):7-22.
[5]赵桂芹,周晶晗.公司成长与规模是否遵循Gibrat法则———对我国非寿险公司的实证检验[J].产业经济研究,2007,(3):11-16.
[6]Arellano M,Bond S R.Some tests of specification for panel data:Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991,58:277-297.
[7]Arellano M,Bover O.Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-component models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68:29-45.
[8]Blundell R,Bond S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87:115-143.
[9]Choi B P.The U.S.property and liability insurance industry:Firm growth,size,and age[J].Risk Management and Insurance Review,2010,13:207-224.
[10]Choi B P.The U.S.property and liability insurance industry:Firm size,growth and impact of guaranty fund[R].A Paper Submitted to the Aria Meeting,2006.
[11]Cummins D,Danzon P.Price,financial quality and capital flows in insurance markets[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,1997,6:3-38.
[12]Gibrat R.Les Inégalitéséconomiques[M].Paris:Recueil Sirey,1931.
[13]Hardwick P,Adams M.Firm size and growth in the United Kingdom life insurance in-dustry[J].Journal of Risk and Insurance,2002,69:577-593.
[14]Mishra V.Size,age&firm growth:The computer industry in India[R].SSRN Working Paper,2004.
[15]Weiss C R.Size,growth and survival in the Upper Austrian farm sector[J].Small Business Economics,1998,10:305-312.
引用本文
邵全权. Gibrat法则是否适用于中国寿险公司——兼论寿险公司规模与成长的影响因素[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(10): 16–26.
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