3393 
2540持续的工业化是发展中国家经济增长的重要推动力。然而，现阶段发展中国家却在普遍经历制造业向服务业的结构转型。文章基于1979—2018年的跨国面板数据系统分析了发展中国家制造业向服务业结构转型对其经济追赶的影响。研究表明：（1）发展中国家制造业向服务业的结构转型会抑制其经济追赶，且“过早去工业化”的负面作用更显著，其作用通过劳动生产率和资本积累渠道实现。（2）发展中国家较高的人力资本、经济发展水平和制度质量可以削弱结构转型的负面影响。（3）较低的农业生产率、发达国家的人工智能应用和劳动力跨梯度转移是造成发展中国家“过早去工业化”的重要原因。（4）现阶段我国的制造业比重下降也不利于经济追赶，尤其是会阻碍中西部地区的经济追赶。因此，发展中国家应采取合理的产业政策防止“过早去工业化”，并通过提升农业生产率、吸引外资、合理引导劳动力流动等助推制造业转型升级。
过犹不及：发展中国家的经济结构转型与经济追赶
摘要
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引用本文
刘来会, 王磊, 安素霞, 等. 过犹不及：发展中国家的经济结构转型与经济追赶[J]. 财经研究, 2023, 49(8): 94-108.
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