实体产业空心化导致发达国家的高主权杠杆?——基于发达国家主权债务危机的实证分析
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财经研究 2013 年 第 39 卷第 03 期, 页码：113 - 123
摘要
参考文献
摘要
为了探索本次发达国家主权债务危机的深层次原因,文章使用60个国家和地区2001-2010年的面板数据,通过构建虚拟变量的动态面板数据模型和半参数面板数据模型对实体产业空心化程度与政府杠杆率之间的相关性和传导机制进行了计量检验和分析。研究结果表明,实体产业占GDP比重与政府杠杆率之间显著负相关,而这种负向作用主要通过影响实际GDP增长率、预算收入占GDP比重、失业率和经常项目余额占GDP比重进行传导,并且在面临金融危机时,这种影响会显著加强。文章最后结合研究结论和中国现状提出了相关政策建议。
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[3]Arellano M,Bover O.Another look at the instrumental variables estimation of error-components models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[4]Blundell R,Bond S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel datamodels[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[5]Candelon B,Palm F.Banking and debt crises in Europe:The dangerous liaisons?[J].DeEconomist,2010,158(1):81-99.
[6]Codogno L,Favero C,Missale A.Yield spreads on EMU government bonds[J].Eco-nomic Policy,2003,18(37):503-532.
[7]Gapen M,Gray D,Lim C,et al.Measuring and analyzing sovereign risk with contingentclaims[R].IMF Working Paper,2008.
[8]Gros D,Mayer T.How to deal with sovereign default in Europe:Create the Europeanmonetary fund now[R].CEPS Working Paper,2010.
[9]Haque N,Mark N,Mathieson D.The relative importance of political and economic varia-bles in creditworthiness ratings[R].IMF Working Paper,1998.
[10]Heckman J J.Sample selection bias as a specification error[J].Econometrica,1979,47(1):153-161.
[11]Malone S W.Balance sheet effects,external volatility,and emerging market spreads[J].Journal of Applied Economics,2009,12(2):273-299.
[12]Maltritz D.Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone:A bayesian ap-proach[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2012,31(3):657-672.
[13]Manasse P,Schimmelpfennig Roubini N.Predicting sovereign debt crises[R].IMFWorking Paper,2003.
[14]Reinhart C M,Rogoff K S.From financial crash to debt crisis[J].American EconomicReview,2011,101(5):1676-1706.
[15]Sussman N,Yafeh Y.Institutional reforms,financial development and sovereign debt:Britain 1690-1790[J].The Journal of Economic History,2006,66(4):906-935.
[16]Ullah A,Roy N.Nonparametric and semiparametric econometrics of panel data[M].New York:Marcel Dekker,1998.
引用本文
范小云, 孙大超. 实体产业空心化导致发达国家的高主权杠杆?——基于发达国家主权债务危机的实证分析[J]. 财经研究, 2013, 39(3): 113–123.
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