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9490经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识。在已有文献基础上，文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响。文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架，构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型，并利用1998−2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验。研究结果显示，经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率，即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时，企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期，倾向于采取理性的“延迟退出”决策。进一步分析发现，企业退出决策的“延迟现象”在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性，经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出。从企业方面来看，这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著；从行业方面来看，这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著；从区域来看，这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著。可见，政府的经济政策变动，不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策，而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展。
经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策：理论与实证研究
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张慧, 江民星, 彭璧玉. 经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策：理论与实证研究[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(4): 116-129.
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