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117现有研究普遍认为出口退税政策有力地促进了企业出口增长，然而这一政策的效果是否以企业国内销售的下降为代价却较少受到关注。文章基于2004—2015年细致的客户—供应商匹配数据，考察了出口退税政策对上市公司客户分布的影响。研究发现：（1）出口退税政策在促进企业出口的同时，显著降低了企业在国内市场的销售收入；（2）出口对内销的替代关键取决于企业产出调整能力与客户关系粘性这两类重要机制，企业产出调整能力越低，与境内客户粘性越小，出口退税政策对境内客户销售的替代作用就越大；（3）上游行业出口退税率提高将导致下游企业对国内供应商的采购量减少且趋向集中，同时上游行业出口退税政策的不确定性使得下游企业的供应商采购更为分散。因此，需要谨慎评估出口退税政策可能对内销尤其是下游企业采购的潜在负面影响，以更好地协调与平衡贸易政策对国内市场需求与企业生产组织带来的潜在冲击。
出口退税对内销的削减效应——基于产出调整能力与客户粘性的视角
摘要
参考文献
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引用本文
包群, 谢幼木, 但佳丽. 出口退税对内销的削减效应——基于产出调整能力与客户粘性的视角[J]. 财经研究, 2025, 51(1): 109-123.
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