中国房价总体快速上涨的同时,不同城市间的分化趋势日益明显。探究各地房价的涨幅差异,对深入理解中国房价上涨现象及提出针对性调控政策至关重要。文章试图基于土地供给的视角对中国房价分化提供解释,从地方政府土地供给策略入手,分析地区禀赋对供地策略的影响,进而检验供地策略对房价分化的作用。研究发现:(1)财政压力使得政府更多采用招标和拍卖的方式供地,同时减少供地数量且供应较分散;而增长压力促使政府较多采用挂牌的方式供地,增加供地数量且供应较集中。(2)策略性供地加剧房价上涨,其中招拍方式出让比重越高、供地越少及越分散时,房价上涨越快;不同城市的供地策略对房价的推动作用有差异,从而导致房价涨幅出现了分化。据此文章认为,构建房地产市场长效机制应更多地从供给端入手,通过土地供给来调控房价。
土地策略性供给与房价分化
摘要
参考文献
5 况伟大. 租售比与中国城市住房泡沫[J]. 经济理论与经济管理,2016,(2):46−58 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-596X.2016.02.004
6 况伟大,李涛. 土地出让方式、地价与房价[J]. 金融研究,2012,(8):56−69 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-3109.2012.08.011
9 陶然,袁飞,曹广忠. 区域竞争、土地出让与地方财政效应:基于1999~2003年中国地级城市面板数据的分析[J]. 世界经济,2007,(10):15−27 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9621.2007.10.002
12 杨继东,杨其静. 保增长压力、刺激计划与工业用地出让[J]. 经济研究,2016,(1):99−113 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5863.2016.01.035
16 张莉,年永威,皮嘉勇,等. 土地政策、供地结构与房价[J]. 经济学报,2017,(1):91−118 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-913X.2017.01.038
18 Chen T,Kung J K S. Do land revenue windfalls create a political resource curse? Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2016,123: 86−106. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.08.005
19 Chow G C,Niu L L. Housing prices in urban China as determined by demand and supply[J]. Pacific Economic Review,2015,20(1): 1−16. DOI:10.1111/paer.2015.20.issue-1
20 De Bruyne K,Van Hove J. Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices:An economic geography approach[J]. Applied Economics,2013,45(13): 1673−1689. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2011.636021
22 Glaeser E L,Ward B A. The causes and consequences of land use regulation:Evidence from greater Boston[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(3): 265−278. DOI:10.1016/j.jue.2008.06.003
23 Han L,Kung J K S. Fiscal incentives and policy choices of local governments:Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2015,116: 89−104. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.04.003
24 Henderson J V,Thisse J F. On strategic community development[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2001,109(3): 546−569. DOI:10.1086/321017
25 Puga D. Urbanization patterns:European versus less developed countries[J]. Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(2): 231−252. DOI:10.1111/jors.1998.38.issue-2
26 Saiz A. Room in the kitchen for the melting pot:Immigration and rental prices[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2003,85(3): 502−521. DOI:10.1162/003465303322369687
27 Wang S Y. State misallocation and housing prices:Theory and evidence from China[J]. American Economic Review,2011,101(5): 2081−2107. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.5.2081
28 Wang Z, Zhang Q H, Zhou L A. To build outward or upward? The spatial pattern of urban land development in China[R]. SSRN Working Paper, 2016.
30 Zheng S Q,Kahn M E,Liu H Y. Towards a system of open cities in China:Home prices,FDI flows and air quality in 35 Major Cities[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2010,40(1): 1−10. DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2009.10.003
引用本文
刘诚, 杨继东. 土地策略性供给与房价分化[J]. 财经研究, 2019, 45(4): 68-82.
导出参考文献,格式为:
本期封面
相关论文