6254 
9806不断上升的经济政策不确定性能否有助于解释全球贸易的低速增长呢？文章利用贸易引力模型，从沉没成本、实际需求和预期三种渠道探讨了经济政策不确定性对国际贸易的影响，然后利用国别配对数据对其进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）贸易规模不但受到进口国经济政策不确定性绝对水平的影响，也受到其相对增速的影响，但出口国经济政策不确定性的影响不显著；（2）经济政策不确定性的贸易抑制效应与进口国的宏观经济状态有关，在失业率较高时期表现更为明显；（3）经济政策不确定性对贸易的影响存在门限特征，不确定性程度较高时期的影响明显高于程度较低时期的影响。文章不但有助于解释2008年金融危机后全球贸易的低速增长，也指出了国际间的政策合作和反对“逆全球化”进而降低经济政策不确定性，是实现全球贸易增长的重要途径。
经济政策不确定性与全球贸易低速增长——基于引力模型的分析
摘要
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引用本文
许锐翔, 许祥云, 施宇. 经济政策不确定性与全球贸易低速增长——基于引力模型的分析[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(7): 60-72.
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