[1]Alpert,M,and H Raiffa.A progress report on the training of probability assessors[A].In D Kahneman,P Slovic and ATversky,eds.Judgment under uncertainty:heuristics and biases[C].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1982:294-305.

[2]Fischhoff,B,P Slovic and S Lichtenstein.Knowing with certainty:the appropriateness of extreme confidence[J].Jour-nal of Experimental Pyschology:Human Perception and Performance,1977,3:552-564.

[3]Gervais,Simon,and Terrance Odean.Learning to be overconfident[J].Review of Financial Studies,2001,14(1):1-27.

[4]Odean,Terrance.Volume,volatility,price,and profit when all traders are above average[J].Journal of Finance,1998,53:1887-1934.

[5]Daniel,Kent,David Hirshleifer,and Avanidar Subrahmanyam.Overconfidence,arbitrage,and equilibruim asset pricing[J].Journal of Finance,2001,56:921-965.

[6]Albert Kyle and F Albert Wang.Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree:can overconfidence survive the markettest[J].Journal of Finance,1997,52:2073-2090.

[7]Wang,F Albert.Overconfidence,investor sentiment,and evolution[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2001,10:138-170.

[8]Daniel,Kent,David Hirshleifer,and Avanidar Subrahmanyam.Investor psychology and security market under-and over-re-actions[J].Journal of Finance,1998,53:1839-1885.

[9]Griffin,D,and Tversky,A.The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence.Cognitive Psychology[A].InHersh Shefrin eds.Behavioral finance(Ⅰ)[C].Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Pub.,2001:54-78.

[10]Zakay D,Tuvia R.Choice latency times as determinants of post-decisional confident[J].Acta Psychologica,1998,98:103-115.

[11]Taylor,S,and J Brown.Illusion and well-being:a social psychological perspective on mental health[J].PsychologicalBulletin,1988,103:193-210.

[12]Odean,Terrance.Do investors trade too much[J].American Economic Review,1999,89:1279-1298.

[13]Barber,Brad M and Terrance Odean.Trading is hazardous to your wealth:the common stock investment performance ofindividual investors[J].Journal of Finance,2000,55:773-806.

[14]Grossman,Sanford J,and Joseph E Stiglitz.On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets[J].American Eco-nomic Review,1980,70:393-408.

[15]Barber,Brad M and Terrance Odean.Boys will be boys:gender,overconfidence,and common stock investment[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2001,116:261-292.

[16]Barber,Brad M and Terrance Odean.Online investors:do the slow die first[J].Review of Financial Studies,2002,15(2):455-487.

[17]Hong,L K.Risky shift and cautious shift:some direct evidence of the culture-value theory[J].Social Psychology,1978,41:342-346.

[18]Douglas,U and Wildavsky,A.Risk and culture[M].Berkeley,CA:University of California Press,1982:313-351.

[19]Wright,G N,Phillips,L D,Whalley,P C,Choo,G T,Ng,K O,Tan,I,&Wisudha,A.Cultural differences inprobabilistic thinking[J].Journal of Cross-cultural Psychology,1978,9:285-299.

[20]Yates,J F,Zhu,Y,Ronis,D L,Wang,D-F,Shinotsuka,H,&Toda,M.Probability judgment accuracy:China,Japan,andthe United States[J].Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1989,43:145-171.

[21]Hsee,C K&Weber,E U.Cross-national differences in risk preferences and lay predictions[J].Journal of BehavioralDecision Making,1999,12:165-179.

[22]Weber,E U&Hsee,C K.Cross-cultural differences in risk perception,but cross-cultural similarities in attitudes to-wards perceived risk[J].Management Science,1998,44:1205-1217.

②风险偏好指数值在1(最回避风险)到8(最偏好风险)之间,具体计算见文献[21]。