基于扩展引力模型的中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力研究
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财经研究 2014 年 第 40 卷第 06 期, 页码：48 - 59
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章基于扩展的引力模型对中国双边金融服务出口的决定因素及出口潜力进行了经验研究,结果发现:进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、是否使用共同语言及进出口双方的经济自由度会对中国双边金融服务出口产生显著的影响;中国大陆对主要的金融服务出口市场(包括中国香港、美国、卢森堡和德国等)普遍"贸易过度",而对"小型"的出口市场则普遍"贸易不足";经济自由化模拟的结果表明,放松国内经济管制,提高经济的自由度,会大大促进中国金融服务出口的发展,而通过提高贸易伙伴的经济自由度来促进中国双边金融服务出口的发展则空间非常有限。最后,文章根据实证分析的结论,提出了促进中国金融服务出口发展的对策建议。
[1]黄满盈,邓晓虹.中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力分析——基于BOP和FATS统计的分析[J].世界经济研究,2010,(5):7-13.
[2]黄满盈,邓晓虹.中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素:基于“钻石模型”的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2011,(7):3-9.
[3]李敬伟,周仲飞.英国金融服务监管及其对我国的借鉴[J].外国经济与管理,2002,(2):28-32.
[4]卢映西.政府行为与转轨国家金融服务贸易竞争力的培育[J].南京财经大学学报,2006,(2):34-37.
[5]王铁山,冯宗宪.中国金融服务贸易在东亚和世界市场中竞争力分析[J].亚太经济,2008,(4):40-45.
[6]赵晓旭.我国金融服务贸易发展与创新对策初探[R].服务业发展与创新国际研讨会论文,2007.
[7]周念利.缔结“区域贸易安排”能否有效促进发展中经济体的服务出口[J].世界经济,2012,(11):88-111.
[8]AndersonJ E,Wincoop van E.Gravity with gravitas:A solution to the border puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2003,93(1):170-192.
[9]Baldwin R,Taglioni D.Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equations[R].NBER Working Paper,No.12516,2006.
[10]Brandicourt V,Schwellnus C,Wrz J.Austria’s potential for trade in services[R].FIW Research Report,No.002,2008.
[11]Grünfeld L,Moxnes A.The intangible globalisation:Explaining patterns of international trade in services[R].Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Paper,No.657,2003.
[12]Head K.Gravity for beginners[EB/OL].2003.http://strategy.sauder.ubc.ca/head/gravity.pdf.
[13]Helpman E,Melitz M,Rubinstein Y.Estimating trade flows:Trading partners and trading volumes[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(2):441-487.
[14]Kalbasi H.The gravity model and global trade flows[R].Paper Presented at the 75th International Conference on Policy Modeling for European and Global Issues,Brussels.2001,July 5-7.
[15]Kimura F,Lee H-H.The gravity equation in international trade in services[J].Review of World economics,2006,142(1):92-121.
[16]Kox H,Lejour A.Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade[R].CPB Discussion Paper,No.49,2005.
[17]McCallum J.National borders matter:Canada-U.S.regional trade patterns[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(3):615-623.
[18]Park S-C.Measuring tariff equivalents in cross-border trade in services[R].Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper,No.02-15,2002.
[19]Pyhnen P.A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963,90(1):93-100.
[20]Tinbergen J.Shaping the world economy—Suggestions for an international economic policy[M].New York:The Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[21]Walsh K.Trade in services:Does gravity hold?A gravity model approach to estimating barriers to services trade[R].IIIS Discussion Paper,No.183,2006.
[22]Westerlund J,Wilhelmsson F.Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data[J].Applied Economics,2011,43(6):641-649.
①据简单计算,从2006-2010年,本文选择的54个样本国经济自由度的平均水平为:7.65、7.64、7.56、7.53和7.55。
[2]黄满盈,邓晓虹.中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素:基于“钻石模型”的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2011,(7):3-9.
[3]李敬伟,周仲飞.英国金融服务监管及其对我国的借鉴[J].外国经济与管理,2002,(2):28-32.
[4]卢映西.政府行为与转轨国家金融服务贸易竞争力的培育[J].南京财经大学学报,2006,(2):34-37.
[5]王铁山,冯宗宪.中国金融服务贸易在东亚和世界市场中竞争力分析[J].亚太经济,2008,(4):40-45.
[6]赵晓旭.我国金融服务贸易发展与创新对策初探[R].服务业发展与创新国际研讨会论文,2007.
[7]周念利.缔结“区域贸易安排”能否有效促进发展中经济体的服务出口[J].世界经济,2012,(11):88-111.
[8]AndersonJ E,Wincoop van E.Gravity with gravitas:A solution to the border puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2003,93(1):170-192.
[9]Baldwin R,Taglioni D.Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equations[R].NBER Working Paper,No.12516,2006.
[10]Brandicourt V,Schwellnus C,Wrz J.Austria’s potential for trade in services[R].FIW Research Report,No.002,2008.
[11]Grünfeld L,Moxnes A.The intangible globalisation:Explaining patterns of international trade in services[R].Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Paper,No.657,2003.
[12]Head K.Gravity for beginners[EB/OL].2003.http://strategy.sauder.ubc.ca/head/gravity.pdf.
[13]Helpman E,Melitz M,Rubinstein Y.Estimating trade flows:Trading partners and trading volumes[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(2):441-487.
[14]Kalbasi H.The gravity model and global trade flows[R].Paper Presented at the 75th International Conference on Policy Modeling for European and Global Issues,Brussels.2001,July 5-7.
[15]Kimura F,Lee H-H.The gravity equation in international trade in services[J].Review of World economics,2006,142(1):92-121.
[16]Kox H,Lejour A.Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade[R].CPB Discussion Paper,No.49,2005.
[17]McCallum J.National borders matter:Canada-U.S.regional trade patterns[J].American Economic Review,1995,85(3):615-623.
[18]Park S-C.Measuring tariff equivalents in cross-border trade in services[R].Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper,No.02-15,2002.
[19]Pyhnen P.A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries[J].Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,1963,90(1):93-100.
[20]Tinbergen J.Shaping the world economy—Suggestions for an international economic policy[M].New York:The Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[21]Walsh K.Trade in services:Does gravity hold?A gravity model approach to estimating barriers to services trade[R].IIIS Discussion Paper,No.183,2006.
[22]Westerlund J,Wilhelmsson F.Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data[J].Applied Economics,2011,43(6):641-649.
①据简单计算,从2006-2010年,本文选择的54个样本国经济自由度的平均水平为:7.65、7.64、7.56、7.53和7.55。
引用本文
邓晓虹, 黄满盈. 基于扩展引力模型的中国双边金融服务贸易出口潜力研究[J]. 财经研究, 2014, 40(6): 48–59.
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