7438 
6919“菜篮子”农产品是我国居民消费价格指数核算的基本组成部分，其价格波动关系国计民生，影响社会生产及生活秩序稳定。文章主要研究我国“菜篮子”农产品价格中是否存在周期性投机泡沫，根据“菜篮子”价格指数的波动特征，提出了两点设想：一是“菜篮子”农产品价格中存在投机泡沫，二是投机泡沫具有周期性特征。首先，文章利用广义sup ADF等泡沫检验方法，在构成“菜篮子”价格指数的九类农产品中，发现有四类存在投机泡沫现象。其次，针对四类农产品价格指数中投机泡沫发生的时点及背景，以大蒜为例，归纳分析了投机泡沫的周期性特征。研究结果表明，我国“菜篮子”农产品价格中存在严重的周期性投机泡沫问题。文章首次从计量角度对“菜篮子”农产品价格中的周期性投机泡沫进行了泡沫检验及归纳分析，丰富了国内农产品价格问题研究的相关文献，对于“菜篮子”系列农产品的供给侧改革和适时市场调控等方面具有较强的现实意义。
“菜篮子”农产品价格投机泡沫：证据、特征与启示
摘要
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引用本文
刘国栋, 苏志伟. “菜篮子”农产品价格投机泡沫：证据、特征与启示[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2018, 20(2): 100-115.
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