As a trade regulatory tool, export rebate policy plays an important role in the process of dealing with the intense fluctuations in international trade. This paper focuses on the duration of firm export relationship and uses survival analysis model to systematically evaluate the implementation effect of export rebate policy by using the highly refined data of export rebate rates. It arrives at the results as follows:firstly, generally speaking, the changes in export rebate rates have significant effects on the stability of firm export relationship in both short term and long term; secondly, in the short term, the effect of the adjustment to export rebate policy on the duration of firm export do not vary widely with location and industry characteristics, but at ownership attribute level, the effect on private firms is the greatest; thirdly, in the long term, firms from eastern regions, private firms and firms in low-tech industries are not only longer affected by policy changes, but also have more obvious effects by policy adjustment, and firms from western regions, foreign-funded firms and firms in high-tech industries, have the lowest sensitivity to the adjustment to export rebate policy. Therefore, the implementation of export rebate policy needs to combine with policies like export credit to guarantee stable economic operation.