上市公司为何隐瞒利好的业绩?——基于市值管理的业绩不预告动机研究
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上海财经大学学报 2012 年 第 14 卷第 05 期, 页码：80 - 88
摘要
参考文献
摘要
本文利用业绩预告实际执行数据,从上市公司市值管理角度对上市公司隐瞒利好业绩这一行为的动机和原理进行了研究。实证结果显示,业绩预告会导致投资者意见分歧迅速减少,根据Miller(1977)假说,股价将会迅速降低。为实现市值最大化的目标,管理者有动力不预告利好的业绩信息。本文的研究丰富了业绩预告、盈余公告研究的相关理论,研究结论对于信息披露的监管和投资决策提供了参考。
[1]郭娜,祁怀锦.业绩预告披露与盈余管理关系的实证研究——基于中国上市公司的经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2010,(2):81-88.
[2]郭娜.管理层业绩预告误差与盈余管理——基于中国上市公司的经验证据[J].经济经纬,2010,(6):76-80.
[3]胡志颖,卜云霞,刘应文.业绩预告修正信息质量的实证研究——基于上市公司2007～2009年业绩预告修正的分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2011,(4):135-140.
[4]施光耀,邵永亮.市值管理时代悄然来临[J].董事会,2007,(11):41-45.
[5]王惠芳.上市公司业绩预告制度实施效果研究——基于深市上市公司年报业绩预告的经验证据[J].审计与经济研究,2009,(1):108-112.
[6]张济建,苗晴.中国上市公司市值管理研究[J].会计研究,2010,(4):108-112.
[7]Aboody,D.and R.Kasznik.CEO Stock Option Awards and the Timing of Corporate Voluntary Disclo-sures[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2000,1:73-100.
[8]Berkman,H.,V.Dimitrov,P.C.Jain,et al..Sell on the News:Differences of Opinion,Short-Sales Constraints,and Returns around Earnings Announcements[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2009,3:376-399.
[9]Boehme,R.,Danielsen,B.,and Sorescu.Short Sales Constraints,Differences of Opinion,and Overvalu-ation[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2006,2:455-487.
[10]Brockman,P.,I.K.Khurana and X.Martin.Voluntary Disclosures around Share Repurchases[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2008,1:175-191.
[11]Cotter,J.,I.Tuna and P.D.Wysocki.Expectations Management and Beatable Targets:How Do Ana-lysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2006,3:593-624.
[12]Garfinkel,J.A.and J.Sokobin.Volume,Opinion Divergence,and Returns:A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2006,1:85-112.
[13]Harris,M.,and A.Raviv.Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race[J].Review of Financial Studies,1993,3:473-506.
[14]Kasznik,R.and B.Lev.To Warn or Not to Warn:Management Disclosures in the Face of an Earnings Surprise[J].The Accounting Review,1995,1:113-134.
[15]Lang,M.H.and R.J.Lundholm.Voluntary Disclosure and Equity Offerings:Reducing Information Asymmetry or Hyping the Stock?[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2000,4:623-662.
[16]Miller,E.M..Risk,Uncertainty and Divergence of Opinion[J].Journal of Finance,1977,4:1151-1168.
[2]郭娜.管理层业绩预告误差与盈余管理——基于中国上市公司的经验证据[J].经济经纬,2010,(6):76-80.
[3]胡志颖,卜云霞,刘应文.业绩预告修正信息质量的实证研究——基于上市公司2007～2009年业绩预告修正的分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2011,(4):135-140.
[4]施光耀,邵永亮.市值管理时代悄然来临[J].董事会,2007,(11):41-45.
[5]王惠芳.上市公司业绩预告制度实施效果研究——基于深市上市公司年报业绩预告的经验证据[J].审计与经济研究,2009,(1):108-112.
[6]张济建,苗晴.中国上市公司市值管理研究[J].会计研究,2010,(4):108-112.
[7]Aboody,D.and R.Kasznik.CEO Stock Option Awards and the Timing of Corporate Voluntary Disclo-sures[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2000,1:73-100.
[8]Berkman,H.,V.Dimitrov,P.C.Jain,et al..Sell on the News:Differences of Opinion,Short-Sales Constraints,and Returns around Earnings Announcements[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2009,3:376-399.
[9]Boehme,R.,Danielsen,B.,and Sorescu.Short Sales Constraints,Differences of Opinion,and Overvalu-ation[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2006,2:455-487.
[10]Brockman,P.,I.K.Khurana and X.Martin.Voluntary Disclosures around Share Repurchases[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2008,1:175-191.
[11]Cotter,J.,I.Tuna and P.D.Wysocki.Expectations Management and Beatable Targets:How Do Ana-lysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2006,3:593-624.
[12]Garfinkel,J.A.and J.Sokobin.Volume,Opinion Divergence,and Returns:A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2006,1:85-112.
[13]Harris,M.,and A.Raviv.Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race[J].Review of Financial Studies,1993,3:473-506.
[14]Kasznik,R.and B.Lev.To Warn or Not to Warn:Management Disclosures in the Face of an Earnings Surprise[J].The Accounting Review,1995,1:113-134.
[15]Lang,M.H.and R.J.Lundholm.Voluntary Disclosure and Equity Offerings:Reducing Information Asymmetry or Hyping the Stock?[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2000,4:623-662.
[16]Miller,E.M..Risk,Uncertainty and Divergence of Opinion[J].Journal of Finance,1977,4:1151-1168.
引用本文
陆蓉, 潘宏. 上市公司为何隐瞒利好的业绩?——基于市值管理的业绩不预告动机研究[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2012, 14(5): 80–88.
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