3218 
2326近年来，中国农民工流动由单向流出转向流出和回流并存现象，即不仅仅是“孔雀东南飞”，还有“凤凰还巢”。文章以制造业产业转型为背景，基于中国流动人口动态监测调查数据、中国工业企业数据以及宏观统计年鉴数据，采用OLS模型和工具变量法，分析了要素价格对农民工回流的影响。研究发现，首先，要素价格变化改变了农民工的流动方向，即由向东部地区流动转变为逐渐向中西部地区流动，流动人口规模变小，跨地区转移劳动力减少，就地转移劳动力增加,回流趋势明显。其次，要素价格主要通过劳动密集型产业转型对农民工回流产生影响。东部地区高工资对农民工的引力作用减弱，中西部地区就业机会增加和幸福感提升加快了农民工回流，劳动密集型产业转型对农民工回流发挥了导向作用。此外，要素价格对老一代农民工回流的影响大于新生代农民工。文章为理解农民工回流的动因提供了新的视角和依据。
要素价格、产业转型与农民工回流
摘要
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引用本文
张欢, 吴方卫. 要素价格、产业转型与农民工回流[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2023, 25(4): 108-122.
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