2005年人民币汇率制度改革效应实证分析
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上海财经大学学报 2006 年 第 08 卷第 05 期, 页码：71 - 77
摘要
参考文献
摘要
本文发现,迄今为止人民币汇率的走势实际上是一个有“突变”现象的“随机游走”过程,这种“突变”可以解释为在严格外汇管制条件下人民币长期积聚的升值压力的一次释放;特别地,2005年7月21日的汇率改革是卓有成效的,它通过加快进口增长和减缓出口增长弱化了人民币进一步升值的压力。文章进而指出,在有效监控投机资金和预防投机冲击的国内机制建立之前,“爬行式钉住汇率”是我国当前汇率政策的最佳选择,而不是简单地放宽人民币对美元汇率的浮动范围。
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[5]John Williamson.Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates[M].Washington:Institute for International E-conomics,1994.
[6]Sebastian Edwards.Real Exchange Rates Devaluation and Adjustment:Exchange Rate Policy in Develo-ping Countries[M].MIT Press,1989.
[7]John Keynes.A Tract on Monetary Reform[M].London:MacMillan,1923.
[8]Gustav Cassel.Post-War Monetary Stabilization[M].New York:Columbia University Press,1928.
[9]Carmen M.Reinhart.The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates[J].American Economic Review,May2000,65~70.
[10]Peter Isard.Exchange Rate Economics[M].Cambridge University Press,1997.
[11]Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld.International Economics:Theory and Policy[M].6th Edition,Ad-dison Wesley,2003.
引用本文
龚秀国. 2005年人民币汇率制度改革效应实证分析[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2006, 8(5): 71–77.
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