To alleviate the inter-provincial imbalance of pension funds, China implemented the nationwide pooling system of basic pension funds in 2022. However, this system may weaken the enthusiasm of local governments for premium collection. This paper first uses an econometric model to verify the impact of the nationwide pooling system of basic pension funds on the enthusiasm of provincial governments for premium collection, and then incorporates it into an actuarial model, adopting the Gini coefficient to quantitatively analyze the inter-provincial redistribution effect of this system from multiple dimensions.

The findings of this paper indicate that: First, the nationwide pooling system of basic pension funds has led to a decrease in the collection rate by 1.53 percentage points in provinces with fund surpluses and by 10.3 percentage points in provinces with fund deficits. Second, the Gini coefficient across various dimensions has shown an upward trend year by year. Third, compared to the situation where the central adjustment system is implemented, this system exhibits a positive adjustment in the fund surplus dimension but a negative adjustment in the benefit payment and contribution dimensions. Fourth, compared to the scenario where the system is implemented without considering local governments’ moral hazard issues, this system demonstrates a negative adjustment in the cumulative surplus indicator, benefit payment dimension, and contribution dimension, except for the indicator of cumulative surplus payable months.

The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it breaks through the limitations of previous research on the central redistribution system and focuses on exploring the inter-provincial redistribution effect of the nationwide pooling system of basic pension funds. Second, it constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation index system to comprehensively assess the inter-provincial redistribution effect of this system. Third, it comprehensively uses both econometric and actuarial models to objectively evaluate the implementation effect of this system.