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比特币价格泡沫：证据、原因与启示

Price Bubbles in Bitcoin:Evidence,Causes and Implications

邓伟

2017 第 19 卷 第 02 期 页码 50-62

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2017.02.005

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摘要

文章利用比特币作为一种具有共同内在价值的世界性虚拟货币，且在多个国家进行同步交易等独特性质，结合正态分布检验和sup ADF检验等多种方法，从价格背离性和爆炸性的角度对比特币价格泡沫进行检验，为比特币存在价格泡沫提供了实证证据。文章发现，比特币是一种完美的金融投机对象，投机因素是比特币价格泡沫产生的主要原因，而监管缺失则是导致比特币价格泡沫不断膨胀的重要原因。另外，比特币的优点被过度夸大而产生的价值高估，以及可能存在的市场操控，也是比特币价格泡沫得以长期存在的重要因素。政策当局应加强对互联网金融产品的关注，及时制定和完善相关政策，合理引导投资者进行理性投资，促进交易机制的完善并防止市场操控，维护互联网金融的健康稳定发展。

Using the unique characteristics of Bitcoin such as a world virtual currency with common intrinsic value and synchronous transactions in multiple countries, and employing normal distribution test and sup ADF test, this paper examines the Bitcoin bubble from the perspectives of price deviation and explosiveness, and provides empirical evidence for the existence of the Bitcoin bubble. It shows that Bitcoin is a perfect financial speculation, speculative factor is the main reason for the bursting of the Bitcoin bubble, and a lack of supervision significantly accounts for constant expansion of the Bitcoin bubble. In addition, the exaggeration of the advantages of Bitcoin leads to overvaluation and possible market manipulation, which is the important reason for the long-term existence of Bitcoin bubble. The authorities need to pay early attention to internet finance products, promptly formulate and improve relevant policies, reasonably guide the investors’ rational investment, promote the perfection of transaction mechanisms, prevent market manipulation and maintain the healthy and stable development of internet finance.

关键词： 比特币,投机泡沫,互联网金融

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