生成式人工智能与企业劳动力需求结构分化——基于ChatGPT发布的准自然实验

Generative Artificial Intelligence and the Structural Differentiation of Enterprise Labor Demand: A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Release of ChatGPT

何勤,李鑫悦

2026 第 28 卷 第 04 期 页码 45-59

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2026.04.004

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摘要

生成式人工智能正深刻改变劳动力市场结构。基于2022—2023年中国在线招聘平台数据,文章以ChatGPT发布为准自然实验,构建广义双重差分模型考察其对企业劳动力需求结构的影响。研究发现,生成式人工智能显著引发了招聘需求的结构性调整,常规职业的收缩幅度明显大于非常规职业,技术冲击主要集中于程序化程度较高的认知职业。基于任务分类的结果显示,这种影响并非均匀作用于所有认知职业,而是主要集中于常规认知职业以及信息分析与处理型非常规认知职业。机制分析表明,任务效率提升和新任务创造共同推动了劳动力需求结构分化。异质性分析表明,技术冲击在无经验要求岗位、民营企业、劳动密集型行业及传统产业中更为显著。进一步分析发现,生成式人工智能在提高岗位工资的同时加剧了职业竞争;相较于常规职业,非常规职业的工资提升更明显、职业竞争更激烈,体现出非对称技术红利和竞争加剧的特征。文章从企业招聘视角揭示了生成式人工智能重塑劳动力需求结构的微观机制,为理解技术冲击下的就业结构调整提供了经验证据。

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is profoundly reshaping the occupational task structure and labor demand allocation of enterprises. Using monthly data from online recruitment platforms in China from 2022 to 2023, this paper treats the release of ChatGPT as a quasi-natural experiment and combines occupation-level large language model exposure to construct a generalized DID model, thereby systematically examining the short-run impact of generative AI on enterprise labor demand and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that generative AI significantly triggers a structural adjustment in the recruitment demand of enterprises, with the contraction in routine occupations being substantially greater than that in non-routine occupations, indicating that technological shocks are first concentrated in cognitive jobs with a higher degree of programmability. Further task-based analysis suggests that this effect is not evenly distributed across all cognitive occupations, but mainly concentrated in routine cognitive occupations and information-processing non-routine cognitive occupations, with a relatively limited impact on non-routine cognitive occupations centered on interpersonal interaction and complex decision-making. Mechanism testing shows that enterprises, on the one hand, compress demand for routine-related positions through task efficiency improvement and, on the other hand, increase the probability of new occupations in non-routine domains through new task creation. The two channels jointly reinforce the structural differentiation of labor demand. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the impact is more pronounced in positions without experience requirements, private enterprises, labor-intensive industries, and traditional industries, suggesting that sectors with greater market exposure and higher task replaceability are more vulnerable to generative AI shocks. Further analysis shows that although recruitment demand for routine occupations declines more rapidly, non-routine occupations experience stronger wage premiums and significantly higher competition intensity. This implies that generative AI mainly works through substitution in routine occupations, whereas in non-routine occupations it is more closely associated with skill complementarity, productivity enhancement, and intensified competition. From the perspective of enterprise recruitment, this paper uncovers the micro-level mechanisms through which generative AI reshapes labor demand structures and provides new empirical evidence for understanding employment adjustment and occupational differentiation under technological shocks.

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