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自由贸易协定条款深化与中国企业海外直接投资效率——基于企业—东道国—年份三维面板数据的实证检验

Deepening of Free Trade Agreement Provisions and Efficiency of Chinese Firms’ Overseas Direct Investment: Evidence Based on the Three-dimensional Panel Data of Firm–Host Country–Year

沈春苗，蔡雨铮，郑江淮

2026 第 28 卷 第 03 期 页码 60-74

DOI: 10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2026.03.005

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摘要

参与全球规则重构与国际经济治理，是应对地缘政治冲击、推动高质量海外直接投资的关键举措。文章先基于全球并购数据库（Zephyr）、全球绿地投资数据库（FDI Markets）和国泰安数据库（CSMAR），获得了2007—2022年涵盖117个东道国、630家中国企业、共1763条投资记录的非平衡三维面板数据；然后基于深度贸易协定数据库（DTAs），构建了中国与27个东道国签订的双边自由贸易协定（FTA）面板数据。在此基础上，利用条款异质性测度FTA深化程度，并采用Richardson扩展模型测算企业海外直接投资效率，进而系统检验FTA深化对中国企业海外直接投资效率的影响。研究结果表明，FTA水平和垂直深化均显著促进了中国企业海外直接投资效率的提升，东道国投资环境优化与企业融资约束缓解是主要作用机制，垂直条款类型、东道国制度质量和双边政治关系会影响FTA深化，进而促进海外直接投资效率提升效应的发挥。文章为政府部门通过创新制度合作助推高质量海外直接投资提供了有益的政策启示。

Against the backdrop of a sluggish global economic recovery and intensifying international trade frictions, high-quality overseas direct investment (ODI) has become an important path for Chinese firms to restructure industrial and supply chains and serve the new “dual circulation” development strategy. However, as geopolitical competition intensifies, developed countries have imposed stricter access restrictions and security screening on Chinese investment in key sectors. Coupled with institutional differences limiting corporate resource integration, the resource allocation of Chinese firms’ ODI falls short of Pareto optimality. As an important instrument for promoting institutional cooperation, the signing of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and the deepening of FTA provisions have become crucial policy tools for governments to guide firms in their global expansion.

This paper integrates data from the Zephyr global M&A database, the FDI Markets greenfield investment database, and the CSMAR listed company financial database to construct an unbalanced panel dataset covering 117 host countries and 630 Chinese firms from 2007 to 2022. It measures FTA deepening by provision heterogeneity and employs the Richardson extended model to estimate Chinese firms’ ODI efficiency, systematically examining the impact of FTA deepening on Chinese firms’ ODI efficiency. The findings reveal that both horizontal and vertical FTA deepening significantly enhance Chinese firms’ ODI efficiency. The optimization of host-country investment environments and the alleviation of corporate financing constraints serve as the main mechanisms. Furthermore, the types of vertical provisions, host-country institutional quality, and bilateral political relations exert heterogeneous effects on the effectiveness of FTA deepening.

The main innovations of this paper are twofold: First, it breaks away from the assumption of FTA provision homogeneity by meticulously measuring FTA deepening from two dimensions—horizontal (increase in effective WTO+ and WTO-X provisions) and vertical (increase in ODI-related provisions)—based on the deep provision catalog released by the World Bank. Second, from the perspective of institutional innovation in regional economic cooperation, it effectively identifies the direction and mechanisms of FTA deepening’s impact on ODI efficiency, providing valuable policy insights for clarifying the directions and priorities of FTA deepening and enhancing Chinese firms’ ODI efficiency.

关键词： 自由贸易协定,FTA深化,条款异质性,海外直接投资

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