To identify the impact of consumption on the carbon peak target, it is necessary to accurately identify the comprehensive effects of improved consumption level and consumption structure upgrading on carbon emissions. Theoretically, the increase in the consumption level leads to an increase in carbon emissions, and the impact of consumption structure upgrading on carbon emissions is uncertain. The paper uses more reliable basic data and more refined methods to account for provincial carbon emissions. The accounting results show that China’s provincial carbon emissions have grown rapidly and exhibit significant spatial correlation.

The empirical results show that a significant increase in the resident consumption level leads to a substantial increase in carbon emissions, with carbon emissions increasing by 1.03% for every 1% increase in resident consumption expenditures. Meanwhile, a significant reduction in the resident consumption structure leads to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions, with carbon emissions decreasing by 3.75% for every 1% decrease in the Engel coefficient. Specifically, in the context of China’s consumption upgrading practice, the increase in carbon emissions caused by an increase in resident consumption expenditures is much higher than the reduction in carbon emissions caused by a decrease in the Engel coefficient, leading to an increase in carbon emissions in the consumption sector in China.

Based on the predicted growth of China’s resident consumption expenditures and the decline of the Engel coefficient, as well as the carbon emission effects of improved consumption level and consumption structure upgrading, the total carbon emission effect of current resident consumption upgrading restricts the realization of the carbon peak target. Achieving the carbon peak target faces real challenges, and China needs to promote consumption upgrading that is compatible with the carbon peak target. In order to expand domestic demand, promote consumption, and achieve the carbon peak target, China should vigorously advocate green and low-carbon consumption, actively lead the upgrading of resident consumption structure, and accelerate the adjustment and optimization of industrial and energy structures.