The stable development of capital markets is a critical component of national financial security, and cultivating patient capital represents an essential pathway. As a prominent form of patient capital, government guidance funds (GGFs) serve as a pivotal force in expanding patient capital. Existing literature predominantly focuses on the guiding role of GGFs in primary markets, leaving their potential impact on the shareholding stability of institutional investors in secondary markets largely unexplored.

Using data from China’s A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023, this paper examines the impact of GGFs’ investment on the shareholding stability of institutional investors in the stock market. The study finds that GGFs significantly enhance the shareholding stability of institutional investors in invested firms, demonstrating a “point-to-area” effect and further strengthening patient capital. Mechanism testing shows that GGFs enhance the institutional investor attention and corporate quality of invested firms by leveraging certification signaling and quality improvement effects, thereby promoting institutional shareholding stability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effect is more pronounced in smaller-scale firms, in strategic emerging industries, and in firms with a lower level of regional financial marketization. Economic consequence analysis indicates that the increased stability of institutional shareholding under the support of GGFs can significantly reduce corporate stock price crashes and financing costs.

The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it enriches research on the economic consequences of patient capital development. Given the scarcity of current research on patient capital, this paper analyzes the guiding role of GGFs in expanding patient capital, contributing to relevant research. Second, it expands research on the influencing factors of institutional investors. From the perspective of patient capital, this paper explores the “point-to-area” effect of GGFs on institutional shareholding stability. This broadens the research scope of GGFs and offers a new perspective on understanding the shareholding behavior of institutional investors, guiding long-term value investment. Third, it offers timely policy implications, suggesting coordinated actions for governments (enhancing GGF leadership), institutions (prioritizing long-term value), and firms (improving patient capital appeal) to strengthen market stability amid economic uncertainties.