The conventional financial capital shows a trend of moving away from agriculture. Timely guiding and encouraging patient capital to enter rural areas is an important approach to promoting the transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.

Based on the panel data of 224 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023 and the micro data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey, this paper sets up a quasi-natural experiment with policy-based agricultural guarantee as the starting point to identify the impact of patient capital entering rural areas on the green transformation of agriculture. The study finds that the implementation of policy-based agricultural guarantee significantly improves the TFP of agriculture in a green manner. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion remains valid, proving that guiding patient capital to rural areas helps promote the green transformation of agriculture. Mechanism testing shows that policy-based agricultural guarantee helps expand the scale of agricultural land operation and improve the level of agricultural division of labor. The two work together and complement each other to drive the green transformation of agriculture. Based on the heterogeneity analysis of the three parties involved in guarantee, supply, and demand, it is found that the impact of policy-based agricultural guarantee is more obvious in regions with flattened management models of agricultural guarantee institutions, higher competition intensity of commercial banks, and better credit levels of agricultural operators. Further analysis reveals that deepening the application of FinTech in guarantee methods and strengthening the linkage with agricultural machinery purchase subsidies in guarantee content are important paths to leverage policy synergy and accelerate the process of agricultural green transformation.

This paper takes policy-based agricultural guarantee as the starting point and extends the study of patient capital to the agricultural field, providing a new perspective for using finance to promote the transformation and upgrading of agriculture.